How we grade: box scores, voids, LIVE vs LOOK BACK
A record is only worth something if you know how it was kept. Here are the rules we use to grade every CenterPointSports card, the same rules for the public scoreboard and for members. They cover how a card is graded. They don't cover how a card is built: that part is our expert desk's and the AI research team's proprietary method.
1. The official box score decides
Every leg is graded on the official NFL box score and the official game book. Not a TV graphic, not a stats app, not a sportsbook's settlement. If the NFL issues a stat correction after the game, we re-grade the leg and log the change (see rule 6).
A leg like "4+ receptions" hits if the player finishes with 4 or more. A leg like "175+ passing yards" hits at 175 or more. No partial credit, no rounding.
Some legs are written as EITHER legs, like "EITHER Player A 1+ reception OR Player B 1+ reception". Those hit if at least one of the two does.
2. When a leg is void
A leg is void (it comes off the card and counts as neither a hit nor a miss) only in these cases:
- The player doesn't play. He's inactive or doesn't get into the game.
- The player leaves hurt and doesn't return, when the team's official in-game update lists him as injured (questionable, doubtful or out). If he had already cleared the line, it's a hit.
A leg is not void just because a player had a quiet day. If he plays and records nothing, that's a miss. We don't void legs because of game script, weather, a coaching decision or a blowout.
3. What PERFECT CORE means
Each card has core legs. A card earns a PERFECT CORE when every core pick on the card, under our card rules, hit or was voided. One miss and the card is a miss, and we show it as a miss.
A PERFECT CORE is a strict standard. It's also not the same as a winning ticket at the book's price. Most core legs are favorites, so a perfect card at short prices can still pay less than you'd think. We report hit rates, not bankrolls.
4. LIVE vs LOOK BACK
Every record we publish carries one of two labels:
- LIVE: the card was saved and timestamped before kickoff. Nothing about it changed after the game started. ("Live" doesn't mean in-game betting. It means published in real time, before the result was known.)
- LOOK BACK: our card rules run over past weeks, using only information that was available before each kickoff. Look-back results are useful for testing rules, but they usually run better than live results, because the rules were written after those weeks happened.
We never add the two together, and we always tell you which one you're looking at. The LIVE record is the one to judge us by.
5. The Expert Card and Bet Protect+
FanDuel sells an optional add-on called Bet Protect+ that takes a leg off the ticket if the player leaves injured. When an Expert Card result depends on it, we show the record both ways, with Bet Protect+ and without it.
6. Corrections, on the record
Mistakes happen: a stat correction, a late injury ruling, a data error, a name that didn't match the official stats. When a published result changes, we log it in our members' corrections log with the date, time, what it was, what it is now and why. Results are never quietly edited, and corrections can go either way: a hit can become a miss.
7. What gets published
- Public: the record on our home page (hits and misses, LIVE and LOOK BACK labelled).
- Members: the graded cards included in their plan, and the corrections log, in the member portal.
- Full graded history: every card, leg by leg, as a separate add-on. [Show once the Whop product exists.]
Both use exactly these rules. Misses are shown in both.
8. What grading can't tell you
Past results don't predict future results, and small samples swing. A good week doesn't mean the next one will be, and a bad week doesn't mean the method broke. No pick is guaranteed. We grade in public so you can make more informed decisions about whether our research is useful to you.
Quick reference
| Situation | Grade |
|---|---|
| Player reaches the number on the official box score | Hit |
| Player plays but falls short (including zero) | Miss |
| Player inactive or doesn't get into the game | Void |
| Player leaves hurt, the team's official in-game update lists him as injured, and he doesn't return | Void (a line he had already cleared stays a hit) |
| Player leaves hurt and returns, or there's no official word | Graded on his final stats |
| NFL stat correction after the game | Re-graded and logged in the members' corrections log |
| EITHER leg | Hit if at least one option hits |
| Every core leg hit or void | PERFECT CORE |
See this week's graded results → See the plans →
Keep reading: Members' corrections log · How we tested the engine · Line shopping NFL props
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