What 10,000 simulations say about a player prop: low, typical, high

Most prop projections give you one number. "He'll have 68 receiving yards." It sounds precise. It isn't. A wide receiver's day can be 20 yards or 140, and a single number hides all of that.

That's why we simulate every NFL game 10,000 times and show each player as a range: low, typical and high. Here's what that means and how to use it.

Why one number isn't enough

Football is lumpy. One deep catch, one red-zone look or one early injury changes a player's whole stat line. Two players can share the same average and still be very different bets:

• Player A is steady. Most games land close to his typical number.
• Player B is boom or bust. Some weeks he's quiet; some weeks he breaks one.

A single projection treats them the same. A range doesn't.

What a simulation actually does

A simulation plays a game out many times, each time with a slightly different script: how many plays each team runs, who gets the ball, how drives end. Run it 10,000 times and you get 10,000 possible stat lines for every player. Line them up and you can see how often a player clears a given number, and how wide his outcomes really are.

What goes into our simulations, and how they're weighted, is proprietary. It's built by our expert desk and an AI research team trained by our expert desk. What we share is the output members see, and an honest test of how well it holds up (more on that below).

Reading low, typical and high

For each player, Game Simulations shows three numbers next to the book's line:

• Low: a quiet day for him. Not his worst possible game, but the low end of what usually happens.
• Typical: the middle of his range, the kind of day you'd expect most often.
• High: a big day. Not a fluke, but the upper end of what usually happens.

Then compare it with the book's line:

• The line sits near the low end: most of his simulated games clear it.
• The line sits near typical: it's close to a coin flip in the simulations.
• The line sits near the high end: he needs a big day.

The width matters too. If low and high are far apart, the outcome swings more, and a single game can go either way. If they're close together, the player is more predictable. Neither one is "good" or "bad". It's information you can use to make more informed decisions.

Alternate lines: the same idea, one step further

Books offer alternate lines, like 3+ receptions instead of 4.5, at shorter prices. Our Alternate Universe tool shows the line a player clears in roughly 80–95% of simulated games, next to the book's price for it. A line that hits often still costs you at the price, and no pick is guaranteed. A 90% line misses about one time in ten, and those misses are part of the deal.

How honest is the simulator?

A simulator is only useful if its percentages mean something. So we tested ours on a season it had never seen: 5,979 FanDuel alternate-line ladders across 2,926 player-games.

When the engine said a line would hit 76% of the time, it hit about 75%. It runs a little high in every band (by 0.5 to 2.2 points), and FanDuel's own prices are still sharper. Being accurate isn't the same as beating the book, and at FanDuel's alternate-line prices it doesn't. That's why we sell it as a research tool, not as a promise. See the full held-out test →

How to use ranges well

1. Start with the range, then look at the price. Know where the line sits in his range before you see what the book pays.
2. Respect the width. Wide ranges mean bigger swings. Size accordingly, and bet only what you can afford to lose.
3. Check the news. A range is only as current as the inputs. Injury Watch and What Changed flag status changes and line moves.
4. Shop the price. The same line can pay differently at different books. See how to line shop NFL props.
5. Keep score. We grade everything on the official box score, misses included. See how we grade and this week's results.

What ranges won't do

A range describes what usually happens. It doesn't know what will happen on Sunday. Small samples swing, and every player can have a day outside his range. No pick is guaranteed.

Where to find it

Game Simulations and Alternate Universe are included in both plans. Member is $9.99 every 7 days and also includes the Line Shop, Boost Optimizer, Injury Watch, What Changed and the Card of the Week.

See every player's range with Member →

Keep reading: How we tested the engine · Line shopping NFL props · How we grade

No pick is guaranteed. 21+ | Gambling problem? 1-800-MY-RESET